NFL Prophet
NFL Prophet About >> Weekly Predictions >> Playoff Odds >> Fantasy Projections >> Previous Matchups

Michael Penix Jr.

Pos: QB3 Team: ATL YoE: 2
Draft: RD 1, PICK 8
Injury Status: H



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"McCarthy is entering his de facto rookie campaign after a knee injury cost the 2024 10th overall pick his entire first season in the pros. McCarthy is expected to start in a QB-friendly Kevin O'Connell scheme loaded with targets (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) that helped Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins to top-12 fantasy campaigns (PPG) during each of O'Connell's three seasons in Minnesota. All three offenses were pass-heavy and scored at least 80% of their TDs through the air. A 22-year-old with no NFL experience, McCarthy is an obvious unknown, but he can add some value with his legs and is well positioned for a productive first season. He's an attractive late-round sleeper target."


"Unfortunately for McCarthy, his 10th career start came to an early end, as he attempted just one pass in the second half before informing head coach Kevin O'Connell that the small hairline fracture in his throwing hand was presenting issues with gripping the football. After having his entire 2024 rookie season wiped out by a meniscus tear in his right knee, McCarthy missed seven total games in 2025 due to a right high-ankle sprain, a concussion and then the fractured hand. When available, he showed strong scrambling ability (181 rushing yards and four TDs), but he still has a long way to go as a passer. On the season, McCarthy completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.7 yards per attempt and an 11:12 TD:INT, and he also took 27 sacks on 270 dropbacks (10 percent sack rate) while fumbling six times, losing two. The 22-year-old will tentatively head into 2026 atop Minnesota's depth chart, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported Sunday that the Vikings are expected to explore more established options at quarterback via trade or free agency this offseason, potentially forcing McCarthy to compete for the starting job in training camp."

J.J. McCarthy's passing yards per attempt has increased by 72.85% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's sacks have increased by 300+% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's passing touchdowns have increased by 150.0% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's total touchdowns have increased by 250.0% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's total points have increased by 250.0% over the past 6 weeks.

Anthony Richardson Sr.

Pos: QB4 Team: IND YoE: 3
Draft: RD 1, PICK 4
Injury Status: Q Return Date:



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"Tillman is entering his third NFL season after what appeared to be a breakout 2024 campaign was derailed by a Week 12 season-ending concussion. The 2023 third-round pick wasn't much of a factor during his first 20 NFL games, but that changed when Amari Cooper was traded prior to Week 7 last season. Over the next four weeks, Tillman would average 9.8 targets (eight-plus in all four) and 18.6 fantasy points (three with 18-plus points). His season ended the following week, but was enough to provide optimism about his future. Cleveland's QB situation is uncertain, but Tillman has a lock on No. 2 duties opposite Jerry Jeudy. Consider the 25-year-old in the late rounds."


"Tillman was responsible for the Browns' longest play for the second consecutive week, and five of his last eight receptions have gone for more than 20 yards. Unfortunately for the third-year wideout, Cleveland's quarterback situation all season was a mess that limited his growth following a promising campaign in 2024, and Tillman had just five catches over the final seven games this season. He ended the regular season with 21 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns. The 2023 third-round pick is heading into the final year of his rookie contract and should be among the team's top three wideouts in 2026, but his fantasy value will depend on organizational changes during the offseason."

Cedric Tillman's target share has decreased by 70.66% over the past 6 weeks.

Cedric Tillman's targets have decreased by 71.43% over the past 6 weeks.

Cedric Tillman's receiving yards have increased by 78.57% over the past 6 weeks.

Cedric Tillman's receptions have decreased by 75.0% over the past 12 weeks.

Cedric Tillman's receiving yards per attempt has increased by 300+% over the past 6 weeks.

Anthony Richardson Sr.

Pos: QB4 Team: IND YoE: 3
Draft: RD 1, PICK 4
Injury Status: Q Return Date:



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"McMillan enters his second NFL season as a bit of a tricky evaluation. The 2024 third-round pick opened his rookie season as a de facto full-time player, but was rarely targeted behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He was finally featured during the final five regular-season games and exploded for a league-high seven TD catches (at least one in all five outings) and 19.8 fantasy PPG (at least 16.7 points in all five). Of course, Godwin was out during that stretch and, even if he misses some time in 2025, the team drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round of April's draft. Consistent fantasy production will be hard for McMillan to find with Evans, Godwin and Egbuka in the mix, not to mention that he's expected to miss a big chunk of the season due to injury."


"McMillan stepped up in a critical game for the Buccaneers, co-leading the team in receptions while setting the pace in receiving yards and targets. The second-year wideout's yardage tally was also a new career high, and it came in only his third game following a very delayed season debut due to a serious neck injury. McMillan could play a key role again in a Week 18 home matchup against the Panthers that will decide the NFC South title, as well as whether Tampa Bay makes the postseason."

Jalen McMillan's receiving yards have increased by 233.1% over the past 16 weeks.

Jalen McMillan's target share has decreased by 25.25% over the past 6 weeks.

Jalen McMillan's receiving touchdowns have decreased by 75.0+% over the past 8 weeks.

Jalen McMillan's receptions have increased by 169.23% over the past 16 weeks.

Jalen McMillan's rushing yards per attempt has decreased by 75.0+% over the past 6 weeks.

Nick Mullens

Pos: QB2 Team: JAX YoE: 7
Draft: UDFA
Injury Status: H



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"Penix is entering his second NFL season and his first as Atlanta's starter. The 2024 No. 8 pick played only three full games as a rookie, with mixed results. He threw for 200-plus yards and one INT in all three, totaling three passing TDs during the stretch. Though he did produce one rushing TD, he was (as expected) a nonfactor with his legs, totaling 11 yards on seven carries. Penix will benefit from a very good supporting cast led by Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but he'll be working in an offense that was third-run-heaviest in the league last season and he's unlikely to add much (if any) value with his legs. Penix should be viewed as no more than a late-round lottery ticket."


""We are working through the medical process to determine the severity of the injury," the Falcons said in a statement Monday. "[Penix] will be placed on the reserve/injured list and miss a minimum of four games. With the move, Kirk Cousins will assume the starting quarterback role for the Falcons at this time." It's been reported by Ian Rapoport of NFL Network that Penix aggravated an existing bone bruise and knee sprain while also suffering damage to the ACL in his left knee, the same one in which Penix already had the ACL reconstructed twice previously during his college days. Penix won't be eligible to return until Week 16 against the Cardinals at the earliest."

Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards per attempt has decreased by 27.65% over the past 6 weeks.

Michael Penix Jr.'s rushing yards per attempt has increased by 93.33% over the past 8 weeks.

Michael Penix Jr.'s rushing yards have increased by 41.18% over the past 6 weeks.

Michael Penix Jr.'s completion percentage has decreased by 16.81% over the past 6 weeks.

Michael Penix Jr.'s passing yards have decreased by 16.15% over the past 6 weeks.


II. Historical Performance



FantasyPassingRushingMisc

Season

Week

Home

Score

Away

ATT

YD

TD

FUM

YPA

RUSH SHARE

2025

18

GB

3 - 16

MIN

2.0

7.0

0.0

0.0

3.5

0.065

2025

16

MIN

16 - 13

NYG

2.0

20.0

1.0

1.0

10.0

0.065

2025

15

MIN

34 - 26

DAL

4.0

15.0

1.0

0.0

3.75

0.143

2025

14

WSH

0 - 31

MIN

6.0

19.0

0.0

0.0

3.17

0.176

2025

12

MIN

6 - 23

GB

2.0

10.0

0.0

0.0

5.0

0.1

2025

11

CHI

19 - 17

MIN

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0

0.0

2025

10

BAL

27 - 19

MIN

5.0

48.0

0.0

0.0

9.6

0.278

2025

9

MIN

27 - 24

DET

9.0

12.0

1.0

0.0

1.33

0.31

2025

2

ATL

22 - 6

MIN

5.0

25.0

0.0

1.0

5.0

0.263

2025

1

MIN

27 - 24

CHI

2.0

25.0

1.0

0.0

12.5

0.077

make your own luck.
nfl-prophet.com © Joseph Poirier, 2024